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'Top Ten' developers report a buoyant q1

The Nation March 31, 2009 Example room of Ivy at China Town, one of property project by Preuksa Real Estate Plc that launch in the first quarter of this year. Small firms are bearing the brunt of a contracting market Leading property firms have achieved their presales targets for the first quarter of this year, despite the property market having fallen between 5 and 10 per cent in the grips of the economic downturn. Many say a "turnaround" in consumer confidence began in mid-January, and continues unabated. A survey by The Nation last week found that the "top ten" firms - all of them listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand - are enjoying higher-than-expected sales, apparently at the expense of smaller firms, whose sales have fallen. Preuksa Real Estate believes its presales will reach nearly Bt4 billion by the end of the first three months of 2009. This follows presales of Bt955 million in January and Bt1.42 billion in February, for a total of Bt2.37 billion in the first two months. LPN Development is claiming presales of nearly Bt1.6 billion in the first quarter, above its earlier estimations. Asian Property Development expects presales of Bt1.3 billion in the first quarter, more than 10 per cent over expectations, and Property Perfect is also ahead of estimates by 10 per cent after recording presales worth Bt1.7 billion in the first quarter. Supalai says its first-quarter presales will come close to its target of Bt2 billion. It fell short of estimates by about 10 per cent when it recorded presales of only Bt1.36 billion in the first two months, instead of the target of Bt1.5 billion. Sansiri is estimating first-quarter presales of Bt6.5 billion - 18 per cent more than its target of Bt5.5 billion. This is largely due to its three-day "Living in Style 2009" event, which attracted presales amounting to Bt1.2 billion. Although the top ten property firms, all of which are listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, are celebrating higher-than-expected presales in the first quarter, small- and medium-sized property developers - both listed and unlisted - have recorded lower sales than their first-quarter targets. This appears to be due to a shift of confidence away from small and medium firms and towards the top ten. MK Real Estate, for instance, believes that its first-quarter presales will fall short of its Bt600-million target by 3 to 5 per cent. With this trend, the total market may fall by 5 to 10 per cent in terms of volume and value by the end of this year, but the top ten property firms will gobble up market share and small- and medium-sized firms will bear the brunt of the fall. The big firms are also reporting an unusual phenomenon- one they wouldn't have dreamed about just three months ago: the latest surge of buyers has cash or high credit ratings. Property Perfect's chief executive Chainid Ngowsirimanee said that home-buyers who were delaying their decision to buy a residence in the final quarter of last year, began to make up their minds to go ahead in about mid-January, and the pace had continued. As a result the company has presold more properties than expected, particularly those priced below Bt5 million per unit. "Customers who are shopping for residences now are showing real demand. Some of them are buying with cash and others have credit records good enough to get a mortgage from a bank. Our reject rate has dropped from 20 per cent last year to between 4 and 5 per cent in the first quarter of this year," he said. Preuksa Real Estate's director and chief operating officer Prasert Taedullayasatit said his company's presales in the first quarter were about 40 per cent higher than those in the final quarter of 2008. Visitors to the company's 83 residential projects have risen from 2,500 per month in December to 3,000 in January and 3,500 in February. "We believe that demand for residential projects at this time is more genuine than it was before. Our reject rate has fallen from an average of 30 per cent to 20 per cent," he said. The company's latest project, Ivy at China Town, has surpassed its target of 10 presales after opening earlier this month. It offers 62 units. Prasert said market trends had led his company to believe that this year's total property market volume in Bangkok and its suburbs would be nearly the same as last year, with sales of between 70,000 and 72,000 units. However, market shares will change, with big developers snatching market share away from smaller firms, he said. LPN Development's managing director Opas Sripayak said his company's marketing campaigns and its good locations had driven its presales to nearly Bt1.6 billion in the first quarter, surpassing its target of Bt1.5 billion by about 6 per cent. Opas said customers who were deciding to buy now had strong confidence in their future earnings. Some had adjusted their plans to buy a home with a price matching their lower earnings. Asian Property Development's senior vice president Visanu Suchartlumpong said his company's presales began to improve in mid-January, and the company was now expecting to exceed its target with first-quarter presales of more than Bt1.3 billion. "We spent more on promotion to boost our sales, while demand in the market is now real demand rather than speculation. So our sales in the first quarter of this year were better than those in the last quarter of last year," he said. MK Real Estate's assistant managing director for marketing Chukiat Tangmatitham said his company's presales began to recover in February and March, and as a result its sales may be near, or lower than, its first-quarter target of Bt600 million. In the first two months of this year, MK Real Estate's presales remained lower than target. In January, presales were not much better than those in the final quarter of 2008, which were down by 10 to 20 per cent. However, presales began to climb in February and March. Home-buyers' confidence is now better than it was in the last quarter of last year, but most of them are choosing to buy from large property developers rather than small- and medium-sized firms, he said. MK Real Estate will continue with marketing campaigns and will also promote its products at the best locations to drive its presales to meet its target of Bt2.4 billion by the end of this year, Chukiat said.

 

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